This paper analyses 556 model scenarios assessed by IPCC’s Working Group-III for the
6th Assessment Report, which have an underlying 10-region classification and
correspond to restricting warming levels to 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. We show that across
all scenarios, the current global inequalities in incomes, energy use, and emissions,
are projected to continue even in 2050. Scenarios also project higher per capita
fossil fuel use and lower carbon dioxide removal in developed countries in 2050
compared to developing countries. Our results demonstrate the scale and scope of
unequal outcomes in these scenarios, that have been anticipated by theoretical
critiques of the underlying models. The paper explores the potential reasons for
the unequal outcomes of the scenarios focusing on the two key issues of scenario
design and modelling framework. Our analysis also suggests that instead of
summary assessments focusing on singular median values or percentile ranges, as
undertaken in the IPCC report, more could be learned from focusing on differences
between models or considering outliers that could present new and innovative
solutions to the determination of equitable and efficient future mitigation
pathways. Our analysis underlines the need for new frameworks for emissions
modelling and scenario building, for constructing possible futures that can also
foreground equity and climate justice.